HUMINT in the age of AI

AI is slowly fundamentally altering how organisations work and the field of forensic investigations has also felt the impact. In the sphere of forensic investigations, AI can scrape data across all available public records to gather insights and draw conclusions. The efficiency, speed, and scale that AI brings to open-source research have significantly streamlined the processes.

While we strongly opine that these tools are powerful, the power of human intelligence still holds, especially in high-value transactions. Human intelligence brings identity, granularity and substantiation to the process. AI enables rapid access to factual information available in the public domain, but it does not capture behavioural nuances, informal dynamics, or culturally contextual realities in the way that human intelligence can. A significant portion of commercially relevant intelligence never enters the public domain - it exists in the memories, observations, and experiences of those closest to the subject.

Human intelligence gathering provides access to insight that is not documented in corporate filings or public records. It uncovers information embedded within industry networks, employee experiences, and stakeholder perceptions. As an example, management’s code of conduct, ethical lapses, internal corruption practices, discriminatory labour policies, and fabrication of financial statements may not be disclosed publicly but broadly known within industry circles. It is the discreet and confidential enquires with current and former employees, industry veterans, suppliers, competitors, journalists and other senior officials which bridges these gaps.  Understanding how a company actually conducts business - whether it honours contractual commitments, whether informal payments form part of day-to-day operations, how it engages with not only vendors and suppliers but also investors - requires an assessment of behavioural traits that cannot be fully understood through secondary research alone. These traits often have a direct and lasting impact on business performance.

Beyond internal corporate dynamics, human intelligence is equally critical in understanding external risk factors. A company’s political affiliations, bureaucratic relationships, and position within the broader sectoral landscape may not be evident from public sources or documentation. While a business group may appear politically neutral on paper, management may maintain informal political alignments that could become a material threat in the event of a change in government. This is particularly relevant in complex markets such as India, where business and political ecosystems are closely integrated and where the consequences of such alignments can be sudden and far-reaching - as has been seen in sectors ranging from infrastructure to telecommunications when political winds have shifted.

Similarly, regulatory frameworks may appear robust on paper, but implementation may be lagging on ground. Understanding how policies are implemented, where enforcement gaps exist, and whether certain business groups benefit from informal advantages requires ground-level insight. In such instances, the most candid and useful intelligence comes from individuals removed from formal power structures - those who have observed patterns of conduct over many years without the incentive to obscure them. For private equity firms, venture capital investors, and multinational corporations unfamiliar with such markets, this intelligence provides critical foresight and serves as an important precautionary measure against future regulatory disruptions.

Our experience suggests that the value of human intelligence becomes even more prominent in asset tracing and corporate investigations. Shareholding structures are often deliberately constructed to obscure ultimate beneficial ownership - sometimes spanning multiple jurisdictions, with nominee directors, shell entities, and layered holding companies designed to frustrate scrutiny. While corporate registries may identify formal shareholding patterns, human enquiries can uncover proxy arrangements, informal ownership structures, and undisclosed relationships that would otherwise remain invisible. Similarly, while evaluating fraud allegations, the records may be fragmented or influenced. In such cases, our on-ground enquiries allows us to authenticate evidence and further discover leads which is unlikely to be available in public records.

With regard to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East as well, a recent trend suggests that several governments are clamping down on the circulation of photos and videos on social media platforms which may potentially damage the reputation of the region. As an example, the UAE government has introduced fines and potential imprisonment, specifically on influencers, for filming and posting sensitive military attacks and strikes. Additionally, it has also been observed that there has allegedly been a change in the algorithm of popular social media platforms favouring one party in the conflict. With heightened scrutiny over digital content and OSINT channels, access to real-time information has become challenging. In such a situation, the role of human source intelligence becomes prominent with on-ground media reporters, local stakeholders, and other regional sources providing credible and verified information which cannot be replicated through any algorithms.

Importantly, human intelligence is not simply a matter of conducting interviews. Instead, identification of reliable sources and employing discretion form the fundamental basis of our investigations. Our in-house professionals have expertise in eliminating any biases potentially arising due to personal resentment among former employees or competitors. This involves corroborating different pieces of information and analysing them to form an unbiased opinion for the client. While we maintain that artificial intelligence can effectively collate employee feedback and media commentary, it certainly cannot judge the tone, intent and credibility of the feedback.

This level of detailing and contextualisation is often rewarding for private equity investors, venture capital firms and multinational corporations considering to enter and operate within a complex jurisdiction such as India where ground level understanding allows them strategically position themselves against any unforeseen reputational, regulatory and compliance risks. Human intelligence, in our experience, has certainly provided comfort which cannot be replaced by technological intervention. It is this dimension of enquiry - rigorous, discreet, and grounded in direct human interaction - that ultimately determines the quality of an assessment.

Osborne Partners integrates AI into its investigative framework to enhance efficiency, while maintaining a strong reliance on human intelligence for depth and context. This methodological commitment - to combining technological capability with experienced human insight - is central to how we approach every assignment. Our assessment is a combination of identification of risk areas and analysis of information which allows us to accurately determine integrity risks. This judgement enables us to provide an unbiased opinion to the client, allowing them to make a sound decision.

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This article was written by Avanti Bhati, Nandini Maheshwari and Gopala Goyal of Osborne Partners' Business Intelligence and Investigations team.

The Business Intelligence and Investigations team supports clients across the investment lifecycle, from pre-investment due diligence to post-investment investigations and public policy risk assessments, helping them identify and respond to reputational,
regulatory and governance risks.

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